2026 EDITION · FIELD REPORT
Eight forces reshaping how North America buys, sells, and eats in 2026, with the data behind each one and what it means if you work in food.
THE BIG PICTURE
Weight-loss drugs are quietly shrinking the grocery cart. A trade war is rewriting where Canadians shop. And the biggest names in food are swapping CEOs and swallowing each other whole. We read the whole industry every week, so you do not have to. These are the eight forces that matter most right now, and what each one means if you work in food.
01 · CONSUMER
The fastest-moving force in food right now is a class of drugs. As GLP-1 medications spread, people are eating less and buying differently, and Big Food is scrambling to follow with smaller packs, more protein, and more fibre.
US households had at least one GLP-1 user as of May 2026.
NIELSENIQ
Smaller packs are now outgrowing multi-serve in soft drinks, cereal, and salty snacks.
NIELSENIQ
Share of in-person grocery runs that are big stock-up trips, and falling.
NIELSENIQ
WHAT IT MEANS
Tighter budgets and smaller baskets mean format and price per serving matter more than they have in years.
02 · BEVERAGES
The soft-drink giants built empires on sugar and are now racing to sell the opposite. Fibre, prebiotics, and protein are the new battleground, opened by upstarts and chased hard by the incumbents.
Prebiotic fibre Coca-Cola is adding to Coke Zero, Sprite Zero, and Fresca.
FOOD DIVE
Pepsi's brand value fell in a year, to $16.81B, as rivals gained.
BRAND FINANCE 2026
PepsiCo North American beverage volumes, with the CEO admitting it is not competing well.
FOOD DIVE
WHAT IT MEANS
Better-for-you is no longer a niche. Olipop and Poppi rewired the category, and the giants are now openly playing catch-up.
03 · CANADA 🍁
A trade dispute with the US has turned local into a selling point, and Canadian brands are leaning in. But patriotism only stretches as far as the price tag.
Canadian food and beverage sales in H1 2026, up about 4%. But real sales were flat: growth was price, not volume.
FARM CREDIT CANADA
Grocery inflation cooled below overall inflation for the first time in over a year.
LOBLAW / STATCAN
Reach of Maple Leaf's Canwich, a shoppable Buy Canadian campaign built around local businesses.
GROCERY BUSINESS
WHAT IT MEANS
Shoppers check the label, then check the price. The brands winning this moment pair local with real, defensible value, not just a maple leaf.
04 · BUSINESS
Food is consolidating at a scale we have not seen in years, from coffee chains to pharmacy giants, and the regulators are starting to push back.
Chipotle's value as Starbucks reportedly circles it. A deal would be the largest restaurant acquisition ever.
NRN / FINANCIAL TIMES
What Canada's Weston family is paying for UK pharmacy giant Boots. Uber is also buying ezCater for $2.3B.
CANADIAN GROCER / NRN
Flagged for antitrust scrutiny by Senator Warren, including Kroger-Giant Eagle ($1.65B).
GROCERY DIVE
WHAT IT MEANS
The Weston-Boots deal shows Canadian food money going global. Expect more cross-border plays, and more scrutiny following close behind.
05 · LEADERSHIP
When this many giants swap leaders at once, it is not a coincidence. It is a bet from boardrooms that the old growth playbook is finished.
Of the largest consumer-goods companies changed CEOs in 2025.
FOODNAVIGATOR
Coca-Cola, Kraft Heinz, Nestle, Hershey, Barry Callebaut, Ferrero, and Suntory, all with new leaders.
FOODNAVIGATOR
The window boards now give new leaders to show a credible turnaround.
FOODNAVIGATOR
WHAT IT MEANS
Expect faster portfolio surgery, more divestitures, and new titles like chief transformation and chief AI officer. The era of steady price hikes and endless line extensions is closing.
06 · FOOD TECH
The hype cycle is ending, and the survivors are the technologies with real economics behind them, not just a good pitch deck.
Plant-based meat and seafood sales growth from 2024 to 2025, as brands shift to health positioning.
FOODNAVIGATOR
Investment in mass-market cultivated meat in 2025, down from $144M a year earlier.
FOODNAVIGATOR
AI in R&D is rising fast; commodity-scale vertical farming and insect-protein megafarms are fading.
FOODNAVIGATOR
WHAT IT MEANS
Chase the technology that lowers cost or adds real nutrition. Be wary of anything that only works while the funding lasts.
07 · RETAIL
Shoppers are done paying up on faith. With budgets tight, they are trading down, leaning on private label, and making brands prove every dollar is worth it.
Of consumers expect to spend more this Thanksgiving, mostly because prices are still high.
NIELSENIQ
Plan to buy more store brands this holiday, while others pick cheaper cuts or smaller sizes.
NIELSENIQ
Corporate jobs Kroger is cutting to run leaner and push prices down.
GROCERY DIVE
WHAT IT MEANS
Private label is winning the moment. For brands, premium now has to be defended with a concrete reason, not just nicer packaging.
08 · CONSUMER
Simple is suddenly a selling point. Familiar ingredients, minimal processing, and short labels are something a real slice of shoppers will pay extra for.
Say familiar, easy-to-recognize ingredients matter more than they did three years ago.
LEK CONSULTING
The price premium shoppers will pay on average for simpler food.
LEK CONSULTING
Would pay extra for minimal processing and no artificial ingredients.
LEK CONSULTING
WHAT IT MEANS
The clean-label premium is real but not universal. Taste and price still win, so simpler only sells when it also tastes good and is easy to spot.
TRENDS AT A GLANCE
Beyond the eight big forces, these are the consumer currents moving fastest right now. Momentum is Behind the Bite's read; every figure beside it is sourced.
HOT ↑
High-protein food and drink topped US$3 trillion in global retail sales, and the claim is now in every aisle. Euromonitor
HOT ↑
46% of shoppers plan to buy more store brands this holiday as budgets stay tight. NielsenIQ
HOT ↑
A trade war has turned made here into a real reason to pick one product over another. Loblaw / StatCan
RISING ↑
70% of Canadians aged 25 to 34 say they enjoy products that remind them of the past. Mintel
RISING ↑
1 in 5 US households now has a GLP-1 user, quietly reshaping the cart. NielsenIQ
RISING ↑
Shoppers will pay about 7% more for food with simpler, familiar ingredients. LEK Consulting
COOLING ↓
Treats still sell, but value pressure is squeezing anything priced purely on prestige. Behind the Bite read
MAKE IT USEFUL
Smaller formats, more protein and fibre, and value a shopper can actually defend at the shelf.
Pair Canadian sourcing with a price that holds up. Patriotism opens the door, price closes the sale.
Big deals and new CEOs are the earliest signal of where the whole category is heading next.
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Sources: NielsenIQ, FoodNavigator, Food Dive, Nation's Restaurant News, Canadian Grocer, Grocery Business, Grocery Dive, Brand Finance, LEK Consulting, Farm Credit Canada, and Loblaw / Statistics Canada. Figures current as of October 2026. Compiled by Behind the Bite.